In their recent CEPR discussion paper, Felix Betz, Peter Bofinger, Jonas Dix and Leonie Streit present a novel method to identify monetary policy shocks. Using different LLMs, they assess a large database of newspaper articles to classify every ECB policy decision either as expected or as a surprise. The resulting aggregated surprise series aligns well with established methods but provides new insights regarding the nature of the surprise.

Spain's heretical VAT cut tames inflation—a model for Europe as Trump's tariffs and Middle East shocks bite.

On January 22, 2026, a research seminar on Large Language Models (LLMs) in monetary policy research took place at the Banque centrale du Luxembourg.