In their recent CEPR discussion paper, Felix Betz, Peter Bofinger, Jonas Dix and Leonie Streit present a novel method to identify monetary policy shocks. Using different LLMs, they assess a large database of newspaper articles to classify every ECB policy decision either as expected or as a surprise. The resulting aggregated surprise series aligns well with established methods but provides new insights regarding the nature of the surprise.
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News Archive
Spain's heretical VAT cut tames inflation—a model for Europe as Trump's tariffs and Middle East shocks bite.
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On January 22, 2026, a research seminar on Large Language Models (LLMs) in monetary policy research took place at the Banque centrale du Luxembourg.
moreGermany's faith in free markets has left it squeezed between China and America — but a defence-spending loophole offers unexpected hope.
moreNew study for IMK: Stablecoins and the Future of Money - Economic Principles and Policy Implications
08/08/2025In this study, Prof. Bofinger evaluates the payment-system potential of stablecoins, explains why bond-backed designs are especially compelling, and clarifies why the proposed Digital Euro cannot serve as an equivalent alternative.
moreGermany scraps its debt brake, unleashing a 500-billion-euro investment plan that could transform infrastructure, defence, and economic growth.
moreIn his lecture at the OFCE seminar, Prof. Peter Bofinger presented a Schumpeterian perspective on innovation as an alternative to traditional supply-side policies. His presentation also addressed the role of innovation, finance, and policy in overcoming economic stagnation.
moreEuropean leaders are striving to reduce barriers to financial integration, yet the deeper challenge remains fragmented government bond markets
moreProfessor Bofinger takes a critical look at the political debate on measures to implement a European capital-markets union.
morePeter Bofinger explains what lies behind the conflict within Germany’s Ampelkoalition on economic policy.
morePanel Discussion by the Digital Euro Association: The Digital Euro: Path To Implementation
05/13/2024The panel discusses retail CBDCs, covering their use cases, implementation, and the status and future of the digital euro. They explore payment experiences, benefits for central banks and users, cross-border applications, innovative blockchain uses, and possible implementation challenges.
moreCo-author Jérôme Creel from the Paris-based OFCE discussed the results of a new Forum New Economy Working Paper with Peter Bofinger in our New Economy Short Cut: “Lessons from the inflation shock: A new paradigm for central banks and governments?” on 26 March 2024.
moreEurope needs massive investment, Peter Bofinger writes. Yet the ECB’s restrictive monetary stance means it is set to fall this year.
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The austerity package stemming from an adverse Constitutional Court ruling, Peter Bofinger writes, defies logic.
moreProf. Bofinger was part of a panel discussion at the CEPS Round Table in Brussels discussing the future of the Digital Euro. The report, ‘A digital euro beyond impulse – think twice, act once’, which Prof. Bofinger and Thomas Haas contributed to, was presented and debated in a panel session. The report puts forward recommendations on what is necessary to be done prior to making the final decision over whether to issue a digital euro, as well as the approach to be followed once such a decision has been made.
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